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<p class="MsoNormal">Dear Colleagues,<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I will be very happy to hear from you about our publication paper, which introduces a methodology to select the time-series model with the best accuracy for a particular country, among 13 time-series models.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"AdvGulliv-R",serif">Tailoring time series models for forecasting coronavirus spread:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"AdvGulliv-R",serif">Case studies of 187 countries<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"AdvGulliv-R",serif"><a href="https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2FS2001037020303998&data=04%7C01%7CLeila%40uaeu.ac.ae%7Ce07150867de8445dcdbe08d9356d616a%7C97a92b044c8743419b08d8051ef8dce2%7C0%7C0%7C637599566171041650%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=X1pVu6XjDZpoO%2BEYW%2FWD61iUsaqsrF6j5p8UYPmX72g%3D&reserved=0">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2001037020303998</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"AdvGulliv-R",serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"AdvGulliv-R",serif">Please do not hesitate to contact me with your comments.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"AdvGulliv-R",serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b><span style="font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif;color:#505050">Abstract<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif;color:#2E2E2E">When will the coronavirus end? Are the current precautionary measures effective? To answer these questions it is important to forecast
regularly and accurately the spread of COVID-19 infections. Different time series forecasting models have been applied in the literature to tackle the pandemic situation. The current research efforts developed a few of these models and validate their accuracy
for selected countries. It becomes difficult to draw an objective comparison between the performance of these models at a global scale. This is because the time series trend for the infection differs between the countries depending on the strategies adopted
by the healthcare organizations to decrease the spread. Consequently, it is important to develop a tailored model for a country that allows healthcare organizations to better judge the effect of the undertaken precautionary measures, and provision more efficiently
the needed resources to face this disease. This paper addresses this void. We develop and compare the performance of the time series models in the literature in terms of root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"AdvGulliv-R",serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"AdvGulliv-R",serif">Best regards,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"AdvGulliv-R",serif">Leila<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="color:#212121"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="color:#212121"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span lang="FR" style="color:#1F497D">---</span><span lang="FR" style="color:#201F1E"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span lang="FR" style="color:#1F497D">Leila Ismail, Ph.D.</span><span lang="FR" style="color:#201F1E"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="color:#1F497D">Associate Professor</span><span style="color:#201F1E">,
</span><span style="color:#1F497D">Dept. of Computer Science & Software Engineering</span><span style="color:#201F1E"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><b><i><span style="color:#1F497D">Founder and Director to Intelligent Distributed Computing & Systems (INDUCE) Research Laboratory<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><b><i><span style="color:#1F497D">(Industry 4.0 projects and beyond)<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><b><i><span style="color:#1F497D">[Beyond the sky’s the limit]</span></i></b><i><span style="color:#201F1E"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="color:#1F497D">College of IT, UAE University</span><span style="color:#201F1E"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="color:#1F497D;border:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in">P.O.Box 15551, Al</span><span style="color:#1F497D">-Ain, UAE</span><span style="color:#201F1E"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="color:#1F497D">Telephone: +971-3-7135530<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<b style="font-family: Tahoma, Geneva, " sans-serif;?="">تنبيه: </b>"تنبيه: إن محتوى هذا البريد الإلكتروني بمرفقاته وبياناته وآرائه الواردة في هذه الوثيقة يحتوي على معلومات تعتبر ذات طبيعة سرية، وتستهدف المرسل اسمه فقط، فإذا لم تكن المرسل إليه في هذه الرسالة
أو كنت قد تلقيت الرسالة بالخطأ؛ يُرجى إبلاغ المُرسل وحذف الرسالة وأية ملفات مرتبطة من النظام الخاص بك، إذ ليس لديك الحق في نسخ أو طباعة أو توزيع أو استخدام محتويات هذا البريد الإلكتروني، أو السماح أو الكشف عن ذلك لأي طرف آخر تحت أي ظرف إلا بموافقة مسبقة من
لمرسل، علماً بأن إخلالك بما سبق سيعرضك للمساءلة القانونية" . </p>
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<b><span style="font-size:12px;font-family:Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif;color:white; text-align:center;"><a href="http://www.uaeu.ac.ae" style="color:#FFFFFF; text-decoration:none;">www.uaeu.ac.ae</a>
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